The second estimate for UK Q4 GDP is due at 0930 GMT on Thursday 22 February 2018
The first flash for this came in at a beat (+0.5% q/q vs. +0.4% expected) and saw a following spike in cable.
For today, what is expected via
- In line with available output data, we expect GDP to be confirmed at 0.5%q/q assuming IoS remains in line with recent trends (ie, +0.1%m/m).
- We forecast the expenditure breakdown to show slower consumption growth (+0.1%q/q)
- but a pickup in capex (+0.3%q/q).
- Monthly trade data points towards a sizeable negative contribution of net exports (-0.6pp) but this will likely be offset by positive inventories.
- In the absence of any revisions to the headline rates of growth (0.5% q-o-q and 1.5% y-o-y) the focus in the second estimate of GDP will be on the expenditure side of the accounts. Consumer and investment spending growth will be focal points as we try to make sense of how Brexit has influenced growth via its impact on sterling, inflation and uncertainty.
- The expenditure breakdown will become available at this stage, although the incoming information since the preliminary estimate hasn't persuaded us that there will be a revision away from the 0.5% q/q headline growth rate originally published (1.5% y/y).