The trend is lower as economists cut growth estimates on both sides of the Atlantic.
JPMorgan lowered its Q2 Italy GDP forecast to 0% from 1.0% today, saying that “at best” the economy was flat in the first half of the year. BNP now sees Eurozone GDP at 0.2% compared to 0.4%.
You could say the same about the US after Bank of America cuts its Q2 forecast to 3.2% from 3.5% following yesterday’s wholesale data. It’s not their first cut, just six weeks ago they were forecasting 4.1% for Q2.
After the -2.9% growth in Q1, the US economy is also virtually flat in the first half of the year. The consensus is at just 3.3% for the quarter and 1.7% for the year. You can see how US forecasts have slowly (and sometimes quickly) eroded.
US GDP consensus forecasts 2011-2014
On the flipside, the IMF upgraded Spain 2014 growth forecast to 1.2%. Next week, the IMF will release its full World Economic Outlook.
