Bavaria CPI

February: +0.9% m/m, +2.6% y/y
January: -0.4% m/m, +2.3% y/y
—
Pan-German CPI

MNI median forecast: +0.5% m/m, +2.2% y/y
MNI forecast range: +0.4% to +0.8% m/m

January: -0.4% m/m, +2.1% y/y
—

BERLIN (MNI) – Consumer prices in the western German state of
Bavaria rose 0.9% in February, lifting the annual inflation rate to
+2.6% from +2.3% in January, the state statistics office said Tuesday.

The monthly result is above the median forecast of +0.5% for
pan-German CPI in a MNI survey of analysts. Earlier today, Brandenburg
and Hesse both posted monthly CPI increases of 0.8%, while Saxony
registered a 0.7% rise.

During the winter holiday season, prices for package holiday tours
spiked 9.4% on the month, while restaurant and hotel services climbed
1.0%.

On the energy side, heating oil in Bavaria was up 5.3% on the
month, motor fuel rose 2.8% and household energy climbed 1.1%.

Food prices climbed 1.0% on the month, with seasonal produce up
2.4%. Alcoholic drinks and tobacco products were up 0.9%. Clothing and
shoes increased by 3.5%.

Annual price developments were driven mainly by energy price
increases, with heating oil up 20.0%, motor fuel up 9.9% and household
energy up 7.4%.

Package holiday tours were up 4.5% on the year, hotel and
restaurant services increased 2.0%.

Food prices climbed 2.5% on the year, with seasonal produce down
8.4%. Clothing and shoes rose 5.7%.

CPI ex-heating oil and motor fuel was up 0.7% on the month and 2.1%
higher on the year.

Inflation is expected to slow in the near term on the back of
weaker domestic and global economic growth and energy base effects.

“Assuming slower energy-price inflation, year-on-year inflation
should tend to moderate from its present level over the next few
months,” the Bundesbank predicted earlier this month.

The German Finance Ministry last week projected inflation to slow
this year due to declining imported price pressures and an expected more
moderate rise in unit labor costs.

The economic panel of the German Banking Association (BDB),
consisting of the chief economists of the main private banks in Germany,
last week forecast German inflation of 1.7% this year and 1.8% next
year. The OECD forecast earlier this month HICP harmonized inflation for
Germany of 1.6% in 2012 and 1.5% in 2013.

For detailed information see data table on MNI MainWire.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

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