Ifo – September
business current
morale situation expectations

Median Forecast 106.4 115.8 97.3
High forecast 108.9 118.1 101.0
Low forecast 104.0 115.0 95.0
Previous period 108.7 118.1 100.1
–
Number of responses 16 10 10

4Cast 106.5 115.0 98.0
Barclays Cap. 108.5 118.1 99.5
BNP Paribas 104.7 115.2 95.0
Capital Economics 104.0 na na
Citi 104.0 na na
Commerzbank 106.5 na na
DZ Bank 105.6 115.0 97.0
HSBC 107.8 117.0 99.2
ING 108.9 117.5 101.0
LBBW 106.5 na na
Natixis 105.9 115.0 97.0
Soc. Generale 106.3 116.0 97.5
Standard Chartered 105.9 115.5 97.1
UBS 106.1 116.0 97.0
Unicredit 106.5 na na
West LB 107.0 na na
—

CPI – flash HICP – flash
September September
%mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median Forecast -0.1 2.5 -0.1 2.6
High forecast 0.1 2.7 0.0 2.7
Low forecast -0.3 2.3 -0.2 2.5
Previous period 0.0 2.4 0.0 2.5
–
Number of responses 12 16 8 8

4Cast -0.2 2.3 -0.2 2.5
Barclays Cap. -0.1 2.4 0.0 2.7
BNP Paribas -0.1 2.4 -0.1 2.6
Capital Economics na na -0.2 2.5
Citi 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.6
Commerzbank 0.0 2.5 na na
DZ Bank 0.0 2.7 na na
HSBC 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.7
ING -0.3 2.4 na na
LBBW na 2.4 na na
Natixis -0.2 2.3 -0.2 2.5
Soc. Generale 0.1 2.6 0.0 2.7
Standard Chartered na 2.3 na na
UBS -0.1 2.4 na na
Unicredit na 2.5 na na
West LB 0.0 2.5 na na
—

Jobless – September GfK Consumer
change rate Sentiment
(000s) (%) – October –

Median Forecast -6.5 7.0 5.0
High forecast -4.0 7.0 5.3
Low forecast -10.0 7.0 3.0
Previous period -8.0 7.0 5.2
–
Number of responses 10 10 14

4Cast -8.0 7.0 3.0
Barclays Cap. -5.0 7.0 5.2
BNP Paribas -5.0 7.0 4.9
Capital Economics na 7.0 4.9
Citi -4.0 na na
Commerzbank -10.0 na 5.0
DZ Bank na na 4.9
HSBC -10.0 7.0 5.0
ING na na 5.0
LBBW na 7.0 4.9
Natixis -10.0 7.0 5.3
Soc. Generale -8.0 7.0 na
Standard Chartered -4.0 7.0 5.0
UBS -5.0 7.0 5.0
Unicredit na na 4.9
West LB na na 5.0
—

Retail Sales Import Prices
– August – – August –
%mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median Forecast -0.1 -0.6 0.1 6.3
High forecast 1.2 0.1 1.0 7.4
Low forecast -1.2 -1.5 -0.9 3.0
Previous period 0.0 -1.6 0.8 7.5
–
Number of responses 8 6 7 5

4Cast na na 0.1 7.4
Barclays Cap. -1.2 0.1 na na
BNP Paribas -0.2 -0.3 0.1 7.2
Capital Economics -1.2 -1.5 na na
Citi -1.0 na -0.9 6.3
Commerzbank 0.0 -1.3 na na
DZ Bank 0.0 na 0.3 na
HSBC na na na na
ING na na na na
LBBW na -0.6 na na
Natixis na na 1.0 6.3
Soc. Generale na na na na
Standard Chartered 1.2 -0.6 na na
UBS 0.2 na 0.5 na
Unicredit na na na na
West LB na na -0.3 3.0
———————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, September 23.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]