December: +0.3% m/m, +3.9% y/y

MNI survey median: -0.2% m/m, +3.7% y/y
MNI survey range: -0.3% to +0.4% m/m

November: +0.4% m/m, +6.0% y/y
October: -0.3% m/m, +6.8% y/y
—

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Prices of German imports continued to rise in
December, with gains in all major components except basic goods, the
Federal Statistical Office reported on Friday.

Building on November’s recovery, prices rose an additional 0.3% in
December, resulting in an annual increase of 3.9%. A majority of
analysts polled had expected a monthly dip.

For 2011 as a whole, import prices were up 8.0% after 2010’s 7.8%
rise.

Despite the 2.3% fall in Brent crude prices in December, imports of
crude oil were 0.3% more expensive between November and December.
Petroleum products prices were unchanged over the same period. Excluding
these two components, core import prices were 0.3% higher on the month
to give an annual rise of 2.1%.

Upward pressure from energy prices should continue to ease over the
coming months, as favourable base effects come into play. However,
recent developments in the Middle East, including Iran’s threat to halt
its oil exports to Europe immediately, represent upside risks.

In a recent report, the International Monetary Fund warned that oil
prices “are expected to remain elevated for some time” due to tensions
in the Gulf. It predicted that “prices will only ease marginally in 2012
despite less favorable prospects for global activity.”

For most non-oil commodities, by contrast, the IMF sees “downside”
risks, projecting prices to fall by 14% on average this year due to
“improving supply conditions and slowing global demand.”

Often the first to reflect changing trends in commodity prices,
intermediate goods imports were 0.1% cheaper than in November, but were
0.9% more expensive than one year ago.

Capital goods import prices were up 0.6% on both the month and
year.

Boosted by gains in durables and non-durables prices, consumer
goods import prices increased 0.4% between November and December to give
an annual rise of 2.9%.

January’s PMI poll showed input costs rising at the fastest pace in
six months, due in large part to higher fuel prices. Output prices also
rose at the fastest pace since July.

Export prices rose 0.1% in December and were 2.1% higher on the
year, the statistics office said. For the entire year, export prices
rose 3.7% after recovering 3.4% over 2010.

— Frankfurt bureau: +49-69-720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com —

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$G$$$,MAGDS$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]