Germany June final services PMI 47.3 vs 45.8 prelim
Latest data released by Markit/BME - 3 July 2020
- Composite PMI 47.0 vs 45.8 prelim
The preliminary report can be found here. A more positive revision relative to initial estimates, as we see the German economy rebound modestly in the month of June following the end of lockdown measures.
That said, the headline services reading may be a little misleading given that it is mainly a comparison of month-on-month business activity. The key question moving forward will be whether or not the recovery can keep pace over the next few months.
Markit notes that:
"The relaxation of the lockdown has breathed life back into some parts of the economy, though June's PMI survey suggests that activity is still largely depressed thanks in part to persistent weakness in demand. Export business was a particularly soft aspect of the latest data, so the reopening of borders should add extra impetus to a recovery.
"The decline in employment due to the COVID-19 pandemic has been softened by the short-term work scheme, but it means we are likely to see a quicker turnaround in activity than in the jobs market, which seems to have been borne out in the latest PMI data.
"On its current trajectory the PMI suggests the economy will see a rebound in the third quarter. However, even if the country is able to avoid a fullscale second wave of the coronavirus, the prospects of further local lockdowns and more job losses point to a bumpy road to recovery."