Germany June flash manufacturing PMI 44.6 vs 42.5 expected

Author: Justin Low | Category: News

Latest data released by Markit/BME - 23 June 2020

  • Prior 36.6
  • Services PMI 45.8 vs 42.3 expected
  • Prior 32.6
  • Composite PMI 45.8 vs 44.4 expected
  • Prior 32.3
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A couple of decent beats but nothing that stands out as much as the French readings earlier, which saw a move back into expansion territory in terms of economic activity - or at least what the headline "suggested" it to be.

As mentioned before, a V-shaped recovery in PMI figures just means that conditions now are better than they were last month or two months back. They don't tell the full story about how economic conditions are relative to pre-virus conditions.

Looking at the details, there was an improvement in new orders but that is only seen better compared to the previous four months. New export business showed further signs of stabilising but the rate of decline remained faster than that of new orders.

On the bright side, business expectations turned positive for the first time in four months but overall conditions remain more subdued for the most part.

Markit notes that:

"June's flash survey shows the PMI rebounding further from April's low point and moving to its highest since before the start of the coronavirus outbreak, amid increasing signs of life across the German economy.

"However, while the loosening of lockdown restrictions has had a positive effect on some parts of the economy, the PMI's latest reading is still within contraction territory, which shows this is likely to be a protracted recovery as coronavirus-related disruption and uncertainty continue to weigh on demand.

"There was no separating manufacturing and services in terms of output trends in June, with both seemingly over the worst but far from firing on all cylinders. Firms are starting to feel a bit more bullish about the outlook, but even so there are concerns for the labour market, with the pace of factory job losses hardly letting off in June."

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