North Rhine-Westphalia CPI

January: -0.4% m/m +1.8% y/y
December: +0.7% m/m, +1.7% y/y
—
Pan-German CPI

MNI median forecast: -0.4% m/m, +2.0% y/y
MNI forecast range: -0.5% to -0.2% m/m

December: +0.7% m/m, +2.1% y/y
—

BERLIN (MNI) – Consumer prices in the western German state of North
Rhine-Westphalia fell 0.4% in January, lifting the annual inflation rate
to +1.8% from +1.7%, the state statistics office said Monday.

The monthly result is in line with the median forecast for
pan-German CPI in a MNI survey of analysts. Earlier, Saxony and
Brandenburg also posted 0.4% declines, while Hesse registered a 0.3%
drop.

Downward pressure on monthly consumer prices in NRW came from
packaged holiday tours, which fell 16.8%, and from hotel and restaurant
services, which declined 4.1%. Clothing and shoes were down 3.8%.

Food prices rose 0.8%, with seasonal produce up 3.1%. On the energy
side, heating oil was up 4.3%, motor fuel up 3.0%, electricity up 1.5%
and gas up 0.5%.

Annual price developments were driven mainly by energy price
increases. Heating oil rose 16.9%, gas 6.9%, motor fuel 6.6% and
electricity 3.9%. Food prices climbed 2.6%, with seasonal produce down
4.8%. Clothing and shoes rose 3.7%.

CPI excluding seasonal food was down 0.4% on the month and 1.9%
higher on the year. CPI-ex heating oil and motor fuel dropped 0.5% on
the month and rose 1.5% on the year.

Inflation pressures are expected to continue easing over the coming
months on the back of slowing domestic and global economic growth as
well as falling energy prices. Earlier this month, the government
predicted annual inflation would ease to 1.8% this year.

The Bundesbank last month also forecast an annual inflation rate of
1.8% in 2012, pointing to easing domestic price pressures and
decelerating global commodity prices. For 2013, the central bank
projected inflation would slow further to 1.5%.

“Risks to the inflation outlook stem primarily from oil prices and
exchange rates,” the Bundesbank said. “Given the projected global
economic developments, it is quite possible that the oil prices will not
ease significantly but remain at current levels.” A more pronounced
global slowdown, on the other hand, could exert downward pressure on
commodity prices, it said.

For detailed information see data table on MNI MainWire.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

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