Via Bloomberg
The PMI data out of Europe was encouraging yesterday. PMI's are seen as a leading indicator and the general mood is optimistic as nations look set to re-open their economies further. Here are a few points to note from Germany's PMI data points via Bloomberg:
1. Business activity is moving towards stabilisation only falling by the smallest amount since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in March. Services business activity and manufacturing production show identical rates of decline.
2. Where activity did fall there were reports of COVID-19 related uncertainty weighing on demand and leading to contracts being delayed or cancelled.
3. Some firms were noting pent up demand and growing reports of businesses re-starting production.
4. The latest fall in new orders was the shallowest in the current four month run. New Export business also showed signs of steadying, but the rate of decline was faster than that of total new orders.
5. Firms remain on the backfoot with payroll numbers being reduced for the fourth month in a row. The fall in employment continues to be led by the manufacturing sector.
6. Average charges for goods and services were down for the fourth month in a row
7. Business expectations turned positive for the first time in four months in June
Taking the PMI's as a whole yesterday the anticipated rebound was there. Take a look at the data below:
Furthermore, with the US showing a rise in COVID-19 cases the case begins to grow for the eurozone putting in a swifter recovery than the US. One key area on the charts is the descending EuRUSD trend line. A break though this level will see the buyers take near term control from the sellers. Any rejection of the Euro Recovery fund will cap any further upside and any spike/concern over COVID-19 fears will strengthen the dollar and drag the EURUSD down.
