Saxony CPI

November: -0.1% m/m, +2.0% y/y
October: +0.1% m/m, +2.0% y/y
—
Pan-German CPI

MNI median forecast: -0.1% m/m, +1.9% y/y
MNI forecast range: -0.2% to +0.1% m/m

October: flat m/m, +2.0% y/y
—

BERLIN (MNI) – Consumer prices in the eastern German state of
Saxony fell back 0.1% in November, leaving the annual inflation rate
steady at +2.0%, the state statistics office said Wednesday.

The monthly result is in line with the median forecast for
pan-German CPI in a MNI survey of analysts. The western German state of
North Rhine-Westphalia on Tuesday also posted a monthly CPI dip of 0.1%.

Downward pressure on monthly inflation in Saxony came from energy
prices, with motor fuel down 2.7% and heating oil down 1.8%, while gas
and electricity remained flat.

Airline tickets were 1.4% cheaper than in October, packaged holiday
tours down 1.2% and hotel and restaurant services decreased by 0.8%.
Clothing and shoes prices slipped 0.3%, while alcoholic drinks and
tobacco products were unchanged.

Upward pressure came from food prices, which climbed 1.4% on the
month, with seasonal food up 2.5%.

Annual inflation was marked by higher energy and food prices.
Heating oil prices rose 5.1%, motor fuel was up 3.9%, gas prices climbed
2.8% and electricity prices rose 0.5%.

Food prices were 4.5% higher than a year ago, with seasonal produce
up a whopping 10.8%. Prices for clothing and shoes were up 3.5% and
those for alcoholic drinks and tobacco products up 2.7%.

CPI excluding energy and seasonal food was unchanged on the month
and 1.5% higher on the year.

The Finance Ministry said last week that inflation will likely
remain moderate for the time being, pointing to slowing input prices due
to the weakening global economy. Annual producer price inflation fell to
a three-month low in October.

The latest PMI poll showed input cost inflation also hitting a
three-month low in November (53.2), while output charges posted their
biggest decline (48.8) since early 2010.

The OECD said Tuesday that “the costs of producing renewable energy
as well as strengthening domestic demand and wage growth are projected
to keep [German] consumer price inflation close to 2% in 2013 and 2014.”

Some analysts, however, expect domestic inflation to pick up over
the medium term, arguing that monetary policy in the Eurozone is too
expansionary for Germany.

For detailed information see data table on MNI MainWire.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@mni-news.com

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