Bavaria CPI
September: -0.3% m/m, +1.4% y/y
August: +0.1% m/m, +1.1% y/y
—
Pan-German CPI
MNI median forecast: -0.2% m/m, +1.3% y/y
MNI forecast range: -0.2 to +0.2% m/m
August: flat m/m, +1.0% y/y
—
BERLIN (MNI) – Consumer prices in the German state of Bavaria fell
0.3% in September after August’s 0.1% gain, though lifting the annual
inflation rate to +1.4% from +1.1%, the state statistics office said
Tuesday.
The monthly downturn was slightly steeper than the median
forecast of -0.2% for pan-German CPI in an MNI survey of analysts.
The sharpest monthly declines were noted in hotel and restaurant
prices (-3.4%), as well as leisure prices (-2.2%) and transport (-0.2%),
which helped to offset gains from alcoholic beverages and tobacco
(+0.6%), seasonal food and household energy.
In an annual comparison, costlier heating oil (+26.0%) and motor
fuel (+8.7%) boosted the overall price index, as reflected in the core
annual rate of +0.8%.
Analysts expect inflation to remain low for a fairly long time,
pointing to persisting slack in the economy. Weak underlying inflation
is expected to offset rising energy and food prices. Wage growth in all
likelihood will remain subdued, given that pay deals have been very
moderate up to now.
The Bundesbank asserted last month that “for the coming months a
continued moderate price increase is to be expected.”
At the Eurozone level there is also no sign that inflation will
move appreciably higher any time soon. ECB Governing Council member
Ewald Nowotny said last week, “We see at this time in the ECB system and
also over the medium term no tendency toward an increase in inflation
above the ECB goal” of close to but below 2%.
For detailed information see data table on MNI MainWire.
–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com
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