Data, politics, elections, events all coming up

The Federal Reserve decision tomorrow kicks off what is going to be a wild time in financial markets that packed with risk events.


Dutch election

Voters in the Netherlands will vote on Wednesday. Mark Rutte leads in the polls but markets will be watching to see how anti-EU and anti-immigration candidate Geert Wilders fares. If he pulls out a surprise win, the euro could be sold off hard. Results won't be out until late in the day and then it's expected to be a long process to form a coalition.

1230 GMT (8:30 am ET) - US CPI and retail sales

Two top tier economic indicators will be released Wednesday. Consumer spending was one of the few dark spots in US economic data this year despite the huge jump in confidence. Meanwhile, the CPI numbers will help to clear up the muddied picture on inflation.

1800 GMT (2 pm ET) - FOMC decision

The Fed will almost surely hike rates but the focus will be on signals about the remainder of the year. The market isn't sure whether to price in one, two or three more hikes in 2017.

Note that the Fed decision will also be accompanied by fresh Fed forecasts, dots and a press conference from Janet Yellen.

Thursday (Wed night in New York)

2145 GMT (5:45 pm ET) - New Zealand GDP

Don't forget about New Zealand. The kiwi has been the worst performing major in each of the past two weeks. That's a sign the carry trade could be unwinding. It could accelerate if q/q GDP misses the +0.7% estimate.

0030 GMT (8:30 pm ET) - Australian employment

The focus will shift to Australia and jobs data. The consensus is for 16K new jobs and the unemployment rate staying steady at 4.7%. Watch the full-time/part-time breakdown; last month the economy lost nearly 45K jobs.

0830 GMT (4:30 am ET) - Swiss National Bank

This one is a true wildcard. Expectations from economists are low, especially after the Swiss stats office bumped up its CPI estimate yesterday. But a handful of strange moves in EUR/CHF in the past week along with signs of rising intervention have the market on guard for a surprise rate cut or something else out of the blue.

1200 GMT (8 am ET) - Bank of England

The Bank of England isn't expected to do much on Wednesday but any signals about rising inflation or worries could jar the pound. The currency sagged after the Feb 2 decision because they weren't as hawkish as feared. Carney might opt to avoid making waves with Article 50 so close.

Around 0100 GMT (9 pm ET) - Bank of Japan

The market will be watching to see a slight hawkish shift from the Bank of Japan. Even a tip-toe towards a different bias is the kind of thing that could send the yen on a rip higher. Kuroda knows that and he may opt to keep his foot to the floor.

Also on the upcoming agenda:

The meeting between Trump and Merkel was supposed to take place Tuesday but was pushed back to Friday due to bad weather in Washington.

For more, see the economic calendar.