Gold is a bet on geopolitics right now
Earlier this week, Donald Trump announced he was staying home from the Summit of the Americas to coordinate the response to Syria. Was that a nod to the timing of planned strikes?
Probably not but it's a reminder that it's a long time between today's close and Monday's open.
That's why gold grabbed a solid bid in the past few hours and is trading up $11 to $1346.
It's been bounced around this week on Syria threats and counter-threats. So far no US bombs have fallen and that's why it stalled out at resistance at $1365 on Wednesday then dropped to $1335.
Today, buyers are tentatively getting involved. It's a good hedge into the weekend. The downside is probably only erasing today's $11 gain today while the upside would be a climb to $1365, or more if Russia shoots down missiles.
At the moment, however, this is starting to look like it's going to drag out. Can you really wait a month to launch airstrikes after a chemical weapons attack? It seems to me to be the kind of thing you have to decide on a bit more quickly. So maybe Trump was bluffing after all.