The technical and price action were telltale signs of the gold rally
Gold is an illustration of why technical analysis is the foundation of every good trade and how combining it with fundamentals is extremely powerful.
Five days ago I took a close look at the gold chart and noted three weeks of consolidation in a narrowing wedge pattern.
The chart looked like this:
It's a classic pattern after a big move. Oftentimes it's a sign of consolidation before continuation but at the core, you wait for a breakout and then go with it.
For the past two days gold has rallied because China devalued its currency. The move set off fears about a global FX war and may also prompt Chinese investors to seek out a safe store of value like gold.
But five days ago we didn't know that. What we did know last week was that the Fed was growing more hawkish. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said it would take a series of disappointing data releases to dissuade him from voting for a rate hike in September. That kind of hawkish talk is a pure negative for gold.
Here's what I wrote then:
"I'm a gold bear but I'm constructive here... If gold was vulnerable, his comments would have sunk it. Instead, prices gained slightly this week in an impressive sign of resilience.
There will still be a few twists and turns before the Sep Fed decision but at the moment, the technicals tell the story. Gold is in a classic 'wedge' consolidation period and poised to break out any day.
When it does, go with a rally to the March low of $1140 or a drop down to the 2010 low of $1020."
The best tell in news trading is when something doesn't do what it's supposed to do. It says that even with a fresh reason to sell, there are no sellers. If something can't fall on bad news, it won't fall at all.
Then on Monday, gold broke above the wedge. That was before China devalued. It didn't mean that you had to buy on that break but when the news hit, the technicals and news were then aligned and that was the signal.
Gold daily
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