Goldman Sachs says EUR/USD to fall to 1.15 (and more from their ‘Top Trade Recommendations’)

Yesterday we had the  “Top Ten Themes for 2015″

Today, Goldman Sachs are out with their “Our Top Trade Recommendations for 2015″

On the EUR/USD:

• We forecast that EUR/$ will fall to 1.15 over the next 12 months
• Equal parts a reflection of our Dollar bullish view and Euro bearish outlook
• … In short, monetary policies are set to diverge between the Euro area and US, a reflection of diverging growth and inflation outlooks
• One of the main push-backs to our view is that Euro downside is widely discussed and therefore consensus
• This recommendation reflects our belief that indicators such as the IMM may exaggerate Euro short positioning and that decent leverage can be had in expressing EUR/$ downside. We recommend a one-year EUR/$ put spread (1.20/1.15) with a breakeven around 1.19, reflecting our view that EUR/$ will make a sizeable move to the downside in the year ahead (and most likely sooner rather than later). The maximum potential net payout on this recommendation is roughly 4.5 to 1 if EUR/$ converges to our 12-month forecast

Here are the other GS recommendations for 2015: