Goldman Sachs says EUR/USD to fall to 1.15 (and more from their ‘Top Trade Recommendations’)

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Yesterday we had the  “Top Ten Themes for 2015″

Today, Goldman Sachs are out with their “Our Top Trade Recommendations for 2015″

On the EUR/USD:

  • We forecast that EUR/$ will fall to 1.15 over the next 12 months
  • Equal parts a reflection of our Dollar bullish view and Euro bearish outlook
  • … In short, monetary policies are set to diverge between the Euro area and US, a reflection of diverging growth and inflation outlooks
  • One of the main push-backs to our view is that Euro downside is widely discussed and therefore consensus
  • This recommendation reflects our belief that indicators such as the IMM may exaggerate Euro short positioning and that decent leverage can be had in expressing EUR/$ downside. We recommend a one-year EUR/$ put spread (1.20/1.15) with a breakeven around 1.19, reflecting our view that EUR/$ will make a sizeable move to the downside in the year ahead (and most likely sooner rather than later). The maximum potential net payout on this recommendation is roughly 4.5 to 1 if EUR/$ converges to our 12-month forecast

Here are the other GS recommendations for 2015:

Goldman sachs trades 21 November 2014

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