USD/CNY forecasts from the investment bank for 3, 6 and 12 month horizons

  • 3 months 6.80 (Goldman Sachs prior forecast was at 6.95)
  • 6 months 6.80 (prior 7.1)
  • 12 months 6.70 (6.90)

GS comments, with the preamble that while trade talks can 'still falter' and a 'deal that rolls back existing tariffs and removes trade uncertainty feels like a high bar'

  • but the 'the risk of another escalation in tariffs looks to have declined'
  • an extended pause now feels like the most likely outcome

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CNY has already been strengthening. Movements such as these often predate analyst revisions.