Goldman Sachs look to the futures market as support for their Federal Open Market Committee view:
- the futures market and our economists both expect the Fed will raise the funds rate by 25bp in July
- and at least one additional time later in 2022
- The median historical experience of equity valuations around initial Fed hikes shows stable P/E multiples.
- Specifically, during the 12-month period starting six-months before and ending six months after a tightening cycle begins, the valuation of the S&P 500 has remained remarkably steady on average
From a longer piece.
GS targeting S&P500 at 5100 at end-'22