Goldman Sachs forecasts a jump for US inflation, but to subside by year-end

Goldman Sachs forecast core PCE inflation to peak at 2.4% in April

• And then by year-end back to 2.0%

GS cite:

• bolstered by the year-on-year comparison to the April 2020 lockdowns
• In our baseline, a partial rebound in four particularly sensitive categories-air and ground transportation, hotels, and recreation admissions-will contribute nearly +0.5pp

---

Market consensus is very much for inflation being transitory. Hasn't stopped it slamming Treasury's though.

GS further note, in an interesting question, a VERY interesting question:

• But, how high could core inflation go if mass vaccination unleashes surging demand in virus-sensitive categories?