Goldman Sachs’ Thomas Stolper says EUR/USD will strengthen throughout 2014.
Stolper is a bit of a punching bag among FX traders but he makes some points.
“Tapering is in the price already, we find it difficult to see where the dollar strength would come from,” Stolper wrote in an e-mailed response to questions this week. “There is always a risk that stronger growth in the U.S. suddenly pushes rates even higher as markets anticipate a stronger Fed response. However, our base case is that we see only marginal support for the dollar from interest rates.”
What’s most interesting is how so many analysts are dead-against EUR/USD. The mean estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 46 contributors is for a decline to 1.28. Of 46 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, 42 expect EUR/USD to decline next year.
