Comments on the Australian dollar via GS, this in summary (bolding mine):
On China's Dalian ports restricting imports of Australian coal
- terms-of-trade impact should be short-lived
- less than 10% of Australia's coal exports to China go through Dalian ports equivalent to roughly 0.06% of GDP
- import ban focuses on high-grade coking coal-which is more difficult to substitute than low-grade thermal coal-and Australia is the cheapest source likely limiting the ban's scope as a long-term policy
Positives:
- signs of progress on US-China trade negotiations
- stronger-than-expected labor market report
For the currency:
- We ultimately expect AUD to regain its correlation with risk but the weaker domestic cyclical picture excluding the latest employment data may also remain a headwind in the near-term.