Goldman Sachs on Brexit - base case is UK leaves the EU with a deal by 31 October

A detailed note from GS (it was prior to Queen gives royal assent to bill that blocks no-deal Brexit, but GS had expected this).

The GS 'bottom line':

• … Opposition MPs have indicated that they are reluctant to give consent to a general election until a "no deal" Brexit has actually been averted. These developments strengthen our view that there is unlikely to be a general election in October. This increases the probability we attach to our base case, in which the UK leaves the EU with a deal by 31 October

And, to conclude, a summary of the probabilities GS assigns:

• We raise our probability on a Brexit deal from 45% to 55%.
• Notwithstanding the passage of the Benn Bill and the fading prospect of an October general election, the potential for the Brexit Party to perform well in a November election still leaves the path open to a "no deal" Brexit early next year. Similarly, the potential for the Liberal Democrats or the SNP to accrue influence in a minority government led by the Labour Party after a November general election preserves a path to a second referendum.
• We revise down our probability on "no deal" from 25% to 20%.
• We revise down our probability on "no Brexit" from 30% to 25%.

(ps. there is a lot more to the note on the politics, but the above is my attempt at a summary of the main points).