GS on the CHF, no mention of potential for SNB intervention in this (admittedly very brief) paragraph on it.

Rising risks all around.

  • A series of European tail risks have taken turns weighing on EUR/CHF over the last year. Our model estimate of EUR/CHF fair value has dropped by about 6 big figures since last April-3 from Italy and Turkey spillovers, 2 from Euro area growth concerns, and 1 from Brexit-related volatility.
  • Looking forward, the tricky part is that these risks are somewhat unrelated, so it is difficult to see a path where they all dissipate at once. Easing tensions in Italy for example will probably do little to relax Brexit uncertainty (although all of them would probably help raise Euro area growth prospects to some degree).
  • Therefore, we do not expect the stars to align for a meaningful bounce in EUR/CHF anytime soon, and in fact we think it is more likely that European risks intensify in the coming weeks.
  • We have placed our CHF forecasts under review.