From GS' technical analysis outlook piece for Q1 of 2019, this on the euro against the USD
Comments:
Question is whether EUR/USD is ready to resume downtrend
- everything down to the Aug. '18 low was impulsive in nature. From August into year-end, the market entered a corrective phase, one that retraced/has so far held 38.2% at 1.1780.
- So far none of what has transpired on the recent decline from September has looked definitively impulsive. It's difficult to chase the trend under these circumstances. For that reason, there's a risk the index sees one more recovery towards the 1.1780-1.18 range highs. That being said, any squeeze of that kind should be viewed within context of the broader downtrend.
- With that in mind, it seems best to either sell the break below 1.12 (range lows) and/or a recovery towards 1.18. Whichever happens first, the target for a C wave from Jan. '18 is still the same at ~1.0561.
View:
- Consider eventually adding bearish exposure either from 1.1780-1.18 resistance or below 1.12. Ultimately targeting ~1.056.
