A look at what is ahead from GS (this note from just prior to new year)
Economists at the investment bank are pretty relaxed, seeing headwinds to growth as declining:
- we see the economy as structurally less recession-prone
- new risks could emerge (but) none of the main sources of recent recessions - oil shocks, inflationary overheating, and financial imbalances - seem too concerning for now
- As a result, the prospects for a soft landing look better than widely thought
"We think the prospects for a soft landing in the next few years are better than widely thought, and considerably better than the historical odds would suggest this deep into an expansion"
