Via a GS note on Monday in the US:

  • thinks economic activity has likely bottomed
  • lockdowns & social-distancing restrictions are beginning to be wound back across the globe
  • estimate that global GDP down around 16% since January
  • now forecast a recovery
  • "We expect GDP to grow ... as firms and households learn to combine higher economic activity with continued virus control via a range of adjustment mechanisms including mask and glove wearing, frequent cleanings of workplaces, lower office and retail occupancy, and improved testing and contact tracing"
  • "forecast ... quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth rates averaging -32% in Q2, +16% in Q3, and +13% in Q4 across the advanced economies"


GS are not the only economists I have seen saying the global economy is now bottoming and on the (slow) road to recovery.