Goldman Sachs forecasts for the Australian dollar:

  • AUD/USD at 0.70 in 3 months
  • To 0.67 in 6 months
  • And still at 0.67 in 12 months
  • See AUD/USD in a 0.66-0.72 trading band

Their RBA outlook:

  • See the RBA on hold for 2016 and 2017, GS says there is a 45% probability of a cut in H1 of 2016
  • See the start of a "modest" interest-rate hiking cycle in early 2018

Says RBA is reluctant to ease, but may do so if a worsening of

  • reduced foreign capital flows
  • drought
  • home price falls
  • AUD overvaluation