A successful resolution of talks in Vienna is the market expectation and thus the return of Iran oil to market.
GS comments (in summary):
- case for higher oil prices remains intact
- large vaccine-driven increase in demand
- market pricing a return of Iranian barrels by late (northern) summer
- market is underestimating the upcoming demand rebound
- GS lowered its non-OPEC+ production forecasts by 0.25m b/d in 2H, citing still-depressed activity levels, reduced shale supply response
- "even aggressively assuming a restart in July, we estimate that Brent prices would still reach $80/bbl in 4Q 2021, with our new base case for an October restart still supporting our $80/bbl forecast for this summer"
The talks in Vienna are aimed at reinstating the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), negotiations continue over the conditions to apply.