Goldman Sachs US chief equity strategist David Kostin stock market index projection
- S&P 500 likely down by almost 10% in the next 3 months, to 2,450
- if the economic impact from COVID-19 continues, could drop to 2,000
- coronavirus to damage profits, inflict other harm to the economy
- "The coronavirus has created unprecedented financial and societal disruption"
- "The combination of thin liquidity, high uncertainty, and positioning could cause the S&P 500 to fall below our 2,450 base case estimate of fair value and closer to a trough of 2,000."
- Q2 EPS could fall 15% y/y
- V-shaped recovery in equities usually follow "event-driven" bear markets
- expects 3,200 at end 2020