Coming up at 2350GMT, Japanese economic growth in the fourth quarter ofr 2018

Q3 was a shocker, a series of deadly natural disasters weighed on growth. Preliminary data for Q4 due today is expected better.

  • GDP (seasonally adjusted), q/q: expected 0.4%, prior -0.6%
  • GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted) y/y: expected 1.4%, prior -2.5%
  • GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted), q/q: expected 0.4%, prior -0.7%
  • GDP Deflator y/y: expected -0.4%, prior -0.3% (deflator is an inflation measure)
  • GDP Consumer Spending (aka private Consumption) q/q, expected 0.7%, prior -0.2%
  • GDP Business Spending q/q, expected +1.8%, prior -2.8%

Quickie thoughts via a few analysts.


  • 4Q growth to rebound supported by strong domestic demand
  • domestic demand contribution to come in at 0.9pp
  • external demand contribution should be -0.4pp and indicate a further shift in growth drivers towards domestic factors
  • Capex is likely expanding among smaller and medium-size enterprises
  • private inventories likely contributed 0.1pp to real GDP growth. Inventories probably built up as a result of strong growth in imports
  • Public demand is also likely to have picked up


  • GDP growth will likely rebound into positive territory
  • natural disasters depressed growth in 3Q
  • because of negative contributions from net exports, GDP growth is unlikely to make up for the decline in the third quarter


  • Solid growth in private consumption
  • a rebound in business capex
  • a small positive contribution from inventories
  • expected to be partly offset by a further negative contribution from net exports
  • and a small negative contribution from public spending

Impact on the yen is not likely to be large. Eyes and ears are on trade talks between the US and China. yen has dropped this week on expectations of some sort of positive news on trade from the meetings.