An earlier look at what is to come for UK CPI is here

More below


  • We forecast UK inflation to have softened in August both at the headline and core level. The y/y acceleration of CPI in July is likely to have been temporary and we expect m/m clothing prices to be less positive than a year ago, resulting in negative base effects. We also expect the influence of the sharp GBP depreciation after the EU referendum to continue to drop out of y/y UK inflation. For RPI, we expect the RPI-CPI basis to widen to 0.9pp after contracting sharply in July

Citi analysts

  • expect stable CPI inflation rates
  • slightly lower energy inflation
  • a tendency towards higher core inflation (but Citi say they are expecting rounding to prevent an uptick in the core inflation rate)
  • Headline inflation will probably resume its fall towards 2% (and its convergence with core) towards the end of the year as energy inflation fades