There is plenty of data from the US due this week, and also an FO<C meeting, but right up there at the top of the items of interest is US GDPO for the January to March quarter.

  • Expected -3.9% (annualised and seasonally adjusted) q/q
  • Q4 2019 was +2.1%, but the virus outbreak has made this a distant memory

That 'expected' is the median, it hides a broad range of estimates of -10% to -1%.

While Jan-March will not be good, April to June (the Q2 figure we won't get an 'advance' reading on for another 3 months) will be even worse. We are half way through Q2 and unemployment claims in the past four weeks are above 20%, ugh.