And the word on everyone's lips will be...
Iran. The big question now will be with US sanctions ramping up, does Saudi Arabia and Russia need to step up further to fill the resulting supply gap? That will be the major discussion point among OPEC+ members as they meet on 18 May.
Making things more complicated is the fact that talks here are set to take place amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as we saw here earlier in the week. Any potential changes to the current output cut deal will also have to take that into account if tensions are to escalate further in the coming months.
But in essence, Iran will be the major issue on three fronts. First, the US expects Saudi Arabia to cover for the shortfall in supply by Iran. Hence, that will ramp up pressure on OPEC+ members to reach such a decision as well in their next meeting in June.
Secondly, it still isn't clear how much of Iran's oil will be taken off the market due to US sanctions. China seems adamant to keep doing business with Iran so it's really tough to gauge the actual shortfall in supply that will come about from US sanctions. As such, it'll be tough for OPEC+ to commit to anything to cover for that.
Lastly, any decision made to 'replace' Iran's oil will surely be met by stern resistance from Iran itself. Tehran certainly will not be happy about losing its market share, especially in a critical and sensitive time like this, so that will cast serious doubts about OPEC+ reaching a unanimous decision on the matter next month.
It's going to be a messy few weeks for oil producers, and this weekend will just be the beginning of a complex road to finding out how OPEC+ members are set to go about their business for the rest of this year.
