A little preview of what the data today actually captures about UK retail sales
Expectation is for a slight rebound in retail sales activity in November relative to October but the year-on-year estimate is expected to slow down a little. This is largely due to the fact of the solid jump in retail sales last November - owing to Black Friday sales.
This year, Black Friday falls on 29 November but the ONS retail sales activity data only captures the reporting period for 27 October to 23 November. Hence, the actual Black Friday sales activity will only be captured in the December release.
Although ONS does account for seasonal adjustments for events like this, the more comprehensive picture of actual retail sales activity is when you actually observe the event itself. They provided a better briefing on that here earlier in the week.
In short, it is best to take in both the November and December readings this year to get a more accurate reflection of retail sales activity in Q4 - particularly in trying to capture Black Friday and Christmas sales activity.
As such, the data today may provide only one-half of the story in UK retail sales activity towards the end of the year so don't attach too much significance to it just yet; especially if you want to account for the drop in the year-on-year figure.
All that said, the pound is still in a sensitive position post-election and traders may still allude to any major misses/beats in the data for some form of near-term movement.
