A preview of the US non-farm payroll report due on Friday. Both RBC and UBS expect that payrolls probably moderated in March after a surge in February.

From RBC:

  • Following February's much greater-than-expected 295K rise in NFP, the result for March should moderate
  • "The projected moderation is expected to largely reflect service-producing jobs easing across a number of industries to 188K from 259K in February"
  • "Hiring in goods-producing is expected to edge u pmarginally to 32K from the 29K gain recorded in February"
  • "manufacturing employment is expected to rise to 20K after a disappointing 8K increase in February"
  • Implies an increase in private employment of 220K
  • And government employment rising 5K after a 7K gain in January
  • "Employment growth on a household basis is expected to remain sufficiently strong to maintain the unemployment rate at February's 5.5% after dropping from 5.7% in January"

Note: RBC are looking for +255K

From UBS:

  • "Payrolls probably moderated a bit in March after a surge in February
  • Other indicators, including jobless claims, continue to suggest that the trend is still as strong as in 2014."

UBS are looking for a +260K headline result

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ForexLive will have full coverage of the NFP data release.

And, we've got previews of the data:

Here: Non-farm payrolls preview: By the numbers

and here: Infograph: Preview of the March US employment report

and here: How the market will react to an NFP miss

and here: Citi on the upcoming NFP ... "USDJPY downside is likely to be the trade"