UKIP has collapsed but the votes aren't going Conservative
UKIP was expected to do poorly today but they didn't poll this badly. They're getting 10 percentage points less than expected.
In theory, that should be good news for the Conservatives because they're the natural second choice for UKIP.
Or maybe not. Maybe UKIP voters don't like Theresa May and they're going Labour.
Alternatively, maybe Conservative voters are going Labour and the UKIP voters aren't enough to pick up the slack.
Still alternatively, a surge in Labour turnout could be skewing everything.
Any way you slice it, Labour is doing much better than expected. And even where Conservatives have been strong, they haven't been as strong as you would anticipate given the collapse in UKIP.
Workington is just out and it's another example (results from last election in parentheses)
- Lab: 51.1% (+8.8)
- Con: 41.7% (+11.6)
- UKIP: 3.7% (-15.9)
Model:
- Lab 42%
- Con 37%
- UKIP 15%
The real tell is going to be in the close constituencies where UKIP wasn't a factor before, that will offer a much clearer picture.
