Morgan's weekly FX summary is out and they've got their eyes on a GBP fall.
Morgan Stanley doesn't believe in the current UK data, and more importantly, the reaction in the pound to it.
The next GBP dip. Continued strong UK data releases have not been sufficient to
keep GBP supported. Worries about the British government finally triggering
Article 50 and investment spending reacting to increasing planning insecurity
should put GBP under renewed selling pressure. We expect GBPUSD easing
moderately to 1.17 with the global reflation theme preventing a bigger setback.
However, it would still make sense to trade GBP short against a global reflation
winning currency. The SEK falls into this category, suggesting GBPSEK shorts
offer value.
They've got half a point but the same could be said for the dollar vs its recent data.
Here's their latest on some of the majors.
