I posted this earlier: Canada inflation and retail sales data due today - preview

Another take on the data to come, this time via Capital Economics:

  • We have pencilled in a 0.4% m/m decline in retail sales volumes in March, but expect the fall to be small in values terms, because a jump in gasoline prices will probably have boosted gasoline station sales values.
  • Meanwhile, we anticipate a 0.2% m/m increase in overall consumer prices in April in seasonally-adjusted terms. But the annual headline CPI inflation rate is likely to drop back to 2.2%, from 2.3%, due to base effects.
  • We expect the Bank of Canada's various core inflation measures to be largely unchanged, close to the 2% mid-point of the inflation target range.

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The data is due at 1230GMT

March Retail Sales:

  • expected 0.3%, prior 0.4%
  • excluding autos 0.5% expected and 0.0% prior

April Inflation ... CPI

  • expected 0.3% m/m, prior 0.3%
  • expected 2.3% y/y, prior 2.3%