Get ready for information overload

So here we are at Super Thursday, or whatever you want to call it.

It's a big day for the pound and may not be one for the fainthearted

All at the same time we get;

  1. MPC rate decision
  2. Vote pattern
  3. Minutes
  4. Inflation report
  5. Updated economic forecasts

That's all out at 11.00 GMT and then Carney holds the Inflation report presser at 11.45 GMT

The screens are going to light up with perhaps 30+ headlines and we're going to need to wade through them all

There's an awful lot that these headlines can do to move the pound. If we see votes for hikes that's an upside move for the pound, but we need to see how many. If there's none then the pound will fall. But then the minutes might indicate that rate rises are getting even closer and that could reverse a no vote seen today. Then there's inflation estimates and growth forecasts, which will add or subtract to what we get in the minutes

The important thing is how we trade it. In my mind there's an extremely strong chance that we see a vote change today. 2 is the minimum amount I'm looking for (Weale & McCafferty), 4 (+Miles) is what I'm expecting and 4 (+Forbes) is an outside chance.

So what would that mean for the pound?

  • 2 votes = Mild upside move as it would be expected, if it's the usual two (more if it's someone else)
  • 3 votes = Bigger move up as although the market may be thinking it, it will wait to actually see it
  • 4 = Puts us one vote from a hike and the pound will rocket
  • 0 = Would mean a drop in the pound but then the minutes will be key. Dovish and we dump. Hawkish and the fall will be limited

It may not be wise to chase any big jump in the pound and perhaps the better trade will be to buy any dovish dip, unless the headlines do something like rule out rate hikes completely or push them back further into 2016

We'll have all the headlines out as fast as our little pinkies can type them. It's going to be tough to get an overall view in the seconds after release so we'll get the key headlines out first and some quick analysis before grabbing the other details