Here's why it might better to play it safe into the weekend

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

Chinese data is due on Monday

A word of warning into the weekend: There are three Chinese data releases shortly after markets reopen on Monday (that's Sunday night in North America).

All are due at 0200 GMT:

  • Retail sales expected up 8.1% y/y
  • Industrial production expected up 6.2%
  • Q4 GDP expected up 6.4% y/y

China is slowing quickly. Last week's trade data was dismal and I believe these numbers could be soft as well. The risk is that it's official Chinese data and they don't exactly have a reputation for transparency and accuracy.

That said, the official PMI was on the low side so I'm inclined to believe that they're not afraid to print weaker data.

In addition, the US is closed for a holiday on Monday and that means there could be a full day of risk aversion before US traders get a chance to respond.

I don't like having trades open for the weekend but yen longs might be worth the trouble.


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