A snippet from Citi on their outlook for EUR/USD, which is (in brief):

  • Out to 3 month forecast: 1.14
  • 6-12 month forecast: 1.16
  • longer term forecast: 1.20

Citi citing:

  • Since the good news on the EU recovery fund, Euro denominated risk assets have traded much more robustly, and although the size of the package isn't 'blockbuster', it's certainly a step in the right direction for European policy and growth.
  • In essence, EA 'break-up' risk premia has now markedly been reduced and may support EUR over the medium term.

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Of course, we still await further on the recovery fund, news of which may not come until mid-July.