The weak dollar, strong commodity, global decoupling between developed and emerging markets trade ended abruptly in mid-July as the oil bubble burst and the bottom dropped out of the euro. Here we are three months later with global equity markets in ashes, commodity prices in ruins and the global economy circling the drain in unison.
These signs have been clear for quiet some time, for at least two-months if not more. Why did it take sophisticated investors so long to liquidate all their short-yen positions, at a minimum? Even today they are throwing trades like NOK/JPY out the window, a trade predicated on high oil prices and high bond yields. Was today the washout? You have to think that stale short yen positions have to be close to covered by this point. If not, the sanity of the holders of these positions has to be questioned.
