ICYMI - Morgan Stanley 'trade of the week' is long EUR/USD
A note overnight from Morgan Stanley, early London morning.EUR/USD is not much changed I though i'd post the idea for thos interested.
- We like to buy EURUSD at market with a target of 1.1800 and stop of 1.1170
- Optimism on growth in the rest of the world rebounding should weaken USD and help EUR. Rebounding China data should filter through to better eurozone data over the coming months. This could come through in this week's German April ZEW survey and eurozone April flash PMI, helped further by easing Brexit concerns and generally stronger equity markets.
- While EUR offers low funding costs, it is the EUR-funding related short positions which could push EUR higher as data improve. Over recent days, German 5-year breakeven rates have caught up with the rise in US breakeven rates, and EMU sovereign spreads have come in. This meets a market that is positioned very short EUR and very long USD.
- The risk to this trade is a downside surprise in eurozone April data.
I guess something to note on the 'of the week' part is the low volatility we have been seeing would suggest (to me at least) a longer holding period (to hit 1.18) than a week.