ICYMI - much anticipated poll/model puts UK PM on track to win a majority at the election
The projected majority is 68, which would be a nice win indeed for the Conservative Party and Boris Johnson.
Here's the news from earlier:
- UK election - YouGov MRP model: Predicts big majority for Boris Johnson
- GBP pops to a fresh high after the YouGov MRP model predicts big majority for Boris Johnson
- Here is a niggle on the YouGov MRP model just released (predicting a big Conservative majority)
- Here's another niggle on YouGov MRP model (predicting a big Conservative majority)
Its a constituency-by-constituency estimate by YouGov
- published in The Times
It shows that if the election had have been held on 28 Nov,
- Conservative Party would win 359 seats, up 42 on what did in 2017 (in number of seats this would be its best performance since 1987)
- Labour, would lose 51 seats (from 262 seats in 2017 to 211) … would be the party's worst performance in seats won since 1983
Why is this poll so anticipated?
- YouGov used the same method in the 2017 general election, when it accurately predicted the results in 93% of constituencies and pointed towards a hung Parliament
- While everyone else, pretty much, was forecasting a big win for PM May
GBP traded up on the results and has retraced somewhat, not all: