IEA says that Iran, Venezuela oil output could slump by almost 30%

Author: Justin Low | Category: News

IEA providing some detailed forecasts for 2019 as well


  • Economic environment in 2018, 2019 remains supportive for oil demand
  • But risks are increasing
  • Middle East OPEC members could raise oil output in "fairly short order" by 1.1 mil bpd in order to cover losses elsewhere
  • Looked at scenario where output losses from Venezuela, Iran could be 1.5 mil bpd by the end of 2019
  • Iran, Venezuela could lose almost 30% of oil output in 2019 due to US sanctions and economic upheaval
  • But new oil output from outside OPEC should be enough to cover growth in demand
A bit of a balanced take by the IEA, but if anything it continues to highlight the growing US shale output - which is foreseen to cover up the drop in supplies by other OPEC members. Though, I'm sure Saudi Arabia would be more than happy to make up for the lost supply too - so let's see what the OPEC meeting next week will bring about.

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