IEA sees fall in Q1 oil demand, the first quarterly drop in more than a decade

Author: Justin Low | Category: News

IEA estimates Q1 oil demand to fall by 435k bpd year-on-year

  • Q2 pglobal oil demand set to grow by 1.2 mil bpd
  • Assuming that economic activity returns progressively to normal
  • Cuts 2020 oil demand growth forecast by 365k bpd to 825k bpd
The changes to the forecasts and estimates are due to the coronavirus outbreak impact as IEA sees the widespread shutdown of the Chinese economy weighing heavily on demand - more so than OPEC - but they estimate a quicker recovery in the coming quarters.

That said, the agency says that the impact of the coronavirus outbreak will be felt by the oil market throughout the year and it is "hard to be precise about the impact" now.

Back to the headline reading, IEA had previously forecast a growth of 800k bpd in Q1 compared to a year earlier but now expect a contraction of 435k bpd instead - the first contraction since the global financial crisis back in 2009.

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