Plenty on the Q3 Australian CPI data today and the AUD/USD already:

But ... if you want more ...


  • Risk of a surprise November rate cut from the RBA has diminished
  • The exchange rate, oil prices, the unemployment rate, and recent GDP growth do not, in our view, suggest enough downside pressure on the RBA's prospective November forecast revision to compel a rate cut


  • We think higher headline inflation is driven by temporary factors (adverse weather conditions), which pushed up fresh food prices
  • Underlying inflation pressures remain low
  • Australia's economic outlook appears resilient to external shocks
  • Unless there is significant AUD appreciation, we think the RBA sees no urgency to ease further
  • We continue to expect the RBA to stay on hold through 2016