Comments by German Ifo economist, Klaus Wohlrabe

  • Expects growth again from Q3, of around 7%
  • German business sees light at the end of the tunnel
  • Economy probably shrank by double-digits in Q2
  • Industrial sector is still very bad, especially in engineering
  • But export expectations have risen significantly

I think the remarks here pretty much sums up the interpretation of recent economic data points, not just in Germany but pretty much everywhere else:

1) April was the peak economic downfall

2) Business and economic conditions in June > May > April

3) Overall conditions in June are still subdued, but a pickup is expected in Q3 and Q4

The key question is, what happens if the pickup or recovery in 2H 2020 isn't as robust as one would think? Policymakers and lawmakers will surely just brush it aside and say that "it will come" eventually but the market reaction will certainly be interesting.