The data is due at 2330GMT
(The 'headline' is) National CPI y/y for August,
- expected 0.6%, prior 0.4%
National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food
- expected 0.7%, prior 0.5%
(This is the closest the US 'core' measure) National CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y
- expected 0.2%, prior was 0.1%
Tokyo CPI y/y for September
- expected 0.6%, prior 0.5%
- Tokyo CPI data is available a month earlier than the National CPI
Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food
- expected 0.5%, prior was 0.4%
Tokyo CPI excluding Food, Energy
- expected 0.1%, prior 0.0%
A couple of bank previews, bolding is mine:
Barclays:
- We estimate that nationwide core inflation (y/y) strengthened to 0.8% in August.
- We forecast that it will peak at 0.9% y/y in September-October, primarily due to base effects in energy components, then start to ease again toward next spring.
HSBC:
- Consumer prices moderately accelerated to 0.4% y-o-y in July, although inflation remains far short of the BoJ's price stability target of 2%.
- Price gains were kept positive mainly due to higher energy prices on a y-o-y basis.
- Excluding fresh food and energy products, inflation edged up only 0.1% y-o-y in July.
- The Tokyo CPI for August paints a similar picture, with headline inflation beating expectations but largely due to non-core prices.
- In all, underlying prices pressures continue to be weak, as wage growth remains slow despite tight labour market conditions.
If those previews are on the ball its not good news from the Bank of Japan's target in the coming months. But they'll be accustomed to that. If you've been following my posts in past months I do expect the BOJ will shift the goalposts on their inflation target (lower than 2%), but apart from the odd bit of chatter from various ex-BOJ people and the like there is little sign of this happening so far. I have by April 2018 pencilled in (when Kuroda's term is up - even if he is reappointed I expect it's a natural opportunity for a new target)
