US employment report for July to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT

The US employment report for the month of July will be released at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT on August 5th, 2016. The estimates is for 180K jobs to be created with the unemployment rate falling to 4.7%.

Below is a look at the trends in the employment picture.


  • The number of jobs added last month was 287K. This offset the weakness in May where only 11K were added. The 2 month average of 149K is below the average for 2016 which is currently at 172K. In 2015, the average was 229K
  • The fall in the number of jobs does not necessarily imply a weak job picture. The unemployment rate is at 4.8% which is lower than the 5.3% average in 2015. So as job growth has slowed, the unemployment rate has continued to fall.
  • In the current month the initial claims have dipped fallen slightly which is positive, but the Manufacturing ISM employment component has dipped.
  • Traders will be watching average hourly earnings which are expected to rise by 0.2% after a disappointing 0.1% increase last month. The YoY is at higher levels (at 2.6%) but not running away given near full-employment levels.