According to ING's research analyst, Viraj Patel
Patel says that it is clear that investors are going into the ECB meeting later with 'very low expectations'. And that suggests that the risk-reward play favours a higher euro.
He argues that markets have been aptly adjusting to softer Eurozone data, so "acknowledgement of that by the ECB should not be new".
Adding that the hawkish tail risk is that Draghi expresses a willingness to look past the recent softening of leading Eurozone economic indicators - with the "intention of pressing on with policy normalisation plans".
In such an event, Patel says that it would spark more bullish euro bets again, sending EUR/USD back above 1.2200/50 in his view.